07.53 Mr Bernanke has declared a truce in the bond wars for the summer vacation, says Kit Juckes, currency analyst at Societe Generale:
Did the Fed Chairman really say anything radical last night? The FOMC minutes had set the stage by giving us a re-run of the message that had been delivered in the post-meeting press conference and do nothing to alter a view that 'tapering' will be announced in September. What I heard from Bernanke was that tapering isn't tightening (Wow!), that policy will remain very accommodative for a very long time, and that higher yields could alter taper-timing. I don't see that as a radical but it has put a ceiling above yields for now, and markets can revert to data-watching mode. And it has knocked the dollar back and put a rocket under the S&P. 10yr Treasuries are now set to trade in a range over the summer (2.25-2.75%?). Credit spreads will tighten sharply as their greatest fear recedes. Emerging markets are going to get some respite.
07.42 Earlier that evening, the Fed released the minutes of its latest interest rate meeting. The minutes showed that about half of the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee thought it 'would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year', while 'a few' wanted to slow or stop the purchases last month. They 'stated their view that a prolonged period of low interest rates would encourage investors to take on excessive credit or interest rate risk and would distort some asset prices,' the minutes said.
Of the twelve voting members of the committee, James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed, and Esther George, president of the Kansas Fed, openly dissented, both calling for a stronger signal on QE tapering.The statement said:
Mr. Bullard dissented because he believed that, in light of recent low readings on inflation, the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its goal of 2 percent inflation. He pointed out that inflation had trended down since the beginning of 2012 and was now well below target. Going forward, he viewed it as particularly important for the Committee to monitor price developments closely and to adapt its policy in response to incoming economic information.
Ms. George dissented because she viewed the ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and in the outlook as warranting a deliberate statement from the Committee at this meeting that the pace of its asset purchases would be reduced in the very near future. She continued to have concerns about maintaining aggressive monetary stimulus in the face of a growing economy and pointed to the potential for financial imbalances to emerge as a result of the high level of monetary accommodation.
07.25That Bernanke chap has gone and done it again. This time, the two words: 'highly accommodative', paired with another two: 'foreseeable future', were enough to send China's main share index up 3.8pc in late Asian trading.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 2.5pc, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.4pc. The FTSE 100 in London is expected to open up 1.7pc at 6,555.5 this morning.
07.15 Let's take a look at this morning's business pages:
* The Telegraph reports that the UK's largest stock market investors are calling for major changes to the way that companies are listed in London in the wake of a number of high-profile casualties.
* MPs are keeping open the option of selling off the whole of Royal Mail in one go, reports the Financial Times (£).
* Post-recession Britain has become a less unequal place than at any time for 25 years, writes the Guardian.
* TheTimes (£) also leads with the Royal Mail privatisation. The biggest privatisation in 30 years was formally launched yesterday, it says.
07.10 Good morning and welcome to our daily business and markets live blog, your one stop shop for all the breaking business stories of the day.
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