The Amazing Spider-Man 2, from Sony Corporation,debuted on Thursday evening to shows starting as early as 7:00pm, and it amassed a solid $8.7 million gross via said previews. That's a bit under the $10m that Spider-Man 3 opened with via Thursday midnight screenings on this weekend back in 2007, and just below the $10.2m Thursday haul of Captain America: The Winter Soldier last month. But it's above the $7.5m that The Amazing Spider-Man scored via its Monday-at-midnight debut over the very long 4th of July weekend. Since the first Amazing Spider-Man opened on a Tuesday in the middle of a summer day leading into a long holiday weekend, the original Spidey reboot isn't exactly a good comparison.
So instead of looking at the last Spidey reboot, let's look at the midnight grosses (or in some cases, early Thursday sneaks) of the previous summer kick-off films over the last several years. As I've said before, the whole 'Let's go to the midnight showing!' thing became mainstream enough for there to be comparable math by arguably 2010, after which it became 'Let's go to the Thursday sneak showing!' after the Aurora movie theater shooting in July 2012. The issue we're looking at isn't just the amount that said movie grossed via its advance-night screenings, but also the predicted percentage of the weekend total that said previews will account for.
Spider-Man 3 kicked off summer 2007 with a $10 million midnight haul which lead into a then-record breaking $151m weekend, meaning that the third Raimi Spider-Man film earned 6.6% of its weekend haul at midnight. In 2008, Iron Man earned just 3.4% of its $102m haul via $3.5m worth of Thursday previews. The next three summer kick-off debuts saw over/under 5% in midnight hauls, as X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $5m towards an $85m debut (5.8%), Iron Man 2 earned $7.5m towards a $128m opening (5.8%), and Thor earned $3.25m towards a $65.7m debut (4.9%).
Te midnight screening, once the almost 'secret' passion of the most hardcore movie fans (I remember calling theaters days before a debut to personally ask about midnight or advance night showings) was now a completely mainstream thing, so the percentages went up accordingly. Still, no one wept when The Avengers made 9% of its $207m opening weekend at midnight in 2012, nor were tears shed when Iron Man 3 did the same last year ($15.6m/$174m).
In general, original films are less front-loaded and more likely to attract the casually curious versus a sequel. So, for example, a 4.9% midnight haul for Thor leads to a 9% Thursday haul for Thor: The Dark World. What all of this means is that we have a general outlook for the probable best-case/worst-case scenario for the opening weekend of Amazing Spider-Man 2. 9% gives the Spidey sequel a rock-solid $95 million debut weekend, which is probably what we're looking at, with arguably between $95m-$105m for the Fri-Sun debut.
The best case scenario is a 7% figure, which gives Amazing Spider-Man 2 a dynamite $124 million, about double the $64m Fri-Sun debut for Amazing Spider-Man and just below the $137m Tuesday-Sunday haul of the last film's holiday debut. That's also unlikely, but it's worth tossing out just in case. The worst case scenario is something along the lines of the 12% front loading of The Dark Knight back in 2008, which would give the Spidey sequel a solid-but-not-spectacular $73m debut figure which would leave the film's ultimate fate up to its word of mouth and legs over the next month. The middle ground is the same 10.5% figure as Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which gives Spider-Man 2 version 2.0 an $80m debut weekend.
Working to Amazing Spider-Man 2's advantage is that it's a general audiences title, with Spidey being a character who is well-known enough to attract the casually curious and those just wanting to go to a movie this weekend without worrying about having seen any prior installments of a given franchise. The reviews are mostly mixed-positive, and the general audiences won't care as much about nitpicking the convoluted world-building as the fans or the critics. Those who just want a big summer spectacle and have already seen Captain America: The Winter Soldier will have little objection to what un-spools onscreen.
It's also arguably kid-friendlier and less overly violent than the likes of Walt Disney's Captain America: The Winter Soldier, so I expect Saturday matinees to be huge. On the other hand, the last film didn't exactly set the world on fire, and the market is being well-served via niche choices ( The Other Woman, Heaven Is For Real, etc.) so it's not a 'see Spider-Man 2 or stay home' type deal. What was special back in 2002 is arguably somewhat less special twelve years later, even if Spider-Man as a web-slinging superhero has never looked so good (if you do go, splurge for the IMAX 3D).
We'll know when we know, but for the moment it looks like Marc Webb's The Amazing Spider-Man 2, starring Andrew Garfield, Emma Stone, and Jamie Foxx, looks set for a rock-solid over/under $100m summer kick-off debut.
Post By http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/05/02/thursday-box-office-amazing-spider-man-2-spins-8-7m/
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