The much anticipated Lego Movie opened yesterday with a dynamite $17.14 million in its first day. That number includes about $400,000 from Thursday shows that started at 10:00pm. Why a kid-friendly, PG-rated animated feature didn't open a little earlier on Thursday is perhaps a puzzle, but that just shows how odd it is that these Thursday sneak previews are now a completely expected and normal portion of the weekend box office. A better question is why a kid-friendly animated film that is sure to kill on afternoon matinees would bother with advance-night previews at all. I bring this up because it looks like, in such an era where Thursday previews can be a relevant and mathematically significant chuck of the weekend box office, The Lego Movie is going to make about 0.5% of its debut from Thursday grosses.
The comparison this weekend is either Madagascar 3, Monsters Vs. Aliens, or The Lorax. Monsters Vs. Aliens earned $16.5 million on Friday and ended the weekend with $59m. Madagascar 3 earned $20m on Friday and ended the weekend with $60m. Universal's The Lorax, which I've been using as a comparison point for The Lego Movie for awhile, opened with $17.5m and ended the weekend with $70m, or a stunning 4.0x multiplier. The big question is whether it plays like the insanely kid-friendly The Lorax (which was arguably the least "playing to adults too" major animated feature in a long time and followed a months-long drought of kid-friendly films)or like a somewhat more anticipated Monsters Vs. Aliens or The Croods ($11m Friday/$43m weekend), or the "generic blockbuster" $20m Friday/$60m weekend debuts of Madgascar 3 and Kung Fu Panda. Long story short, each of these scenarios is good news for The Lego Movie.
The absolute (and unlikely) worst case scenario is that Warner Bros.' (a division of Time Warner) The Lego Movie performs like The Simpsons Movie, which was also a heavily-anticipated animated film that was played to adults as well. But, and this is a big but, that film was PG-13 and wasn't nearly as well received as The Lego Movie, so its 2.4x weekend multiplier is unlikely, as are the 2.6-2.7x weekend multipliers of the last few Pixar films (no school on Fridays in June). Truth be told, I'd be shocked if The Lego Movie doesn't perform at least as well as Kung Fu Panda (3x) and bring in $51m. More likely is a performance like a Spring DreamWorks release, or a 3.5x multiplier for a $60m weekend. And if it performs like The Lorax? Well, then The Lego Movie snags $68m for the weekend. That's the realistic field of estimates. Personally I think the sky is the limit on this one.
I'd imagine even those who were drooling in anticipation might be willing to wait for a Saturday afternoon if they have kids who they can bring along, meaning that today's matinees will be jam-packed. Also working in the film's favor is its sheer quality. Since the marketing did a pretty decent job of hiding many of the best jokes and most of the plot twists, it stands to reason that The Lego Movie can, like The Avengers, Frozen,or Gravity, actually have its opening weekend positively effected by word-of-mouth. So yes, I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks $70m. But I frankly can't find a major debut weekend multiplier higher than The Lorax's 4.0x, so anything over $68m would arguably be record-setting. Come what may, The Lego Movie is off to a terrific start. My 2.5 year old desperately wants to see it and my wife wants to see it again (something that never happens), so we might take in a matinee this weekend. I'll let my wife explain the film's third act...
There were two other releases this weekend. The delayed and poorly reviewed Monuments Men overcame both obstacles to earn $7 million on its first day. Expect a debut of around $20m. Considering that the biggest debut for a George Clooney vehicle outside would-be blockbusters ( Gravity, Batman & Robin, the Ocean trilogy, and The Perfect Storm) is the $19m debut of Burn After Reading, this is a very impressive showing. Say what you will about the film's quality, but Sony was smart to delay the picture, as it went from just another "prestige" picture in December to a big fish in the small pond that is February. Sony and 20th Century Fox (which is distributing overseas) split the film's $50m budget, so this one is in great shape.
In my day, "trouble" meant no press screenings. Now "trouble" means no press screenings and no Thursday night paid sneak previews. As such, it was a little unexpected that Weinstein Company's Vampire Academy didn't just forgo pre-release press screenings, but also Thursday night previews starting before midnight. The low-buzzed young-adult literary adaptation earned $1.43 million on its first day. The film should earn about $4m for the weekend, pretty terrible even by the standards set like the likes of The Host. I hate to say this, but the entire future of the female-centric fantasy-literature adaptation genre is basically in the hands of Divergent.
That's it for today, as I'll have time for holdover news ( Ride Along will top $100 million today or tomorrow) when the weekend figures drop accordingly. For now, if you've seen The Lego Movie, sound off below. If you want to discuss spoilers, please label accordingly or I will edit or delete offending comments. Sorry, I'm a stickler for this kind of thing.
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