OPENING: Heaven Is For Real (SONY) best opener est. $18.9M to $20.1M (3-day) and $26.8M to $27M+ (5-day); Transcendence (WB) No. 4 with $11.5M to $11.8M; A Haunted House 2 (OPRD) $9M to $9.4M in top five; (DIS) hibernating with $5M at No. 9.
UPDATED, SATURDAY, 7:17 AM: Positions have not changed this morning - Captain America: The Winter Soldier is No. 1 three weekends in a row for Disney/Marvel and Rio 2 is in the second spot for Fox, but estimates have been revised slightly. Captain America is now expected to gross $24.5M to $25.4M compared to $23M for the animated sequel Rio 2, which is now lower at $23M+ for the 3-day. It looks like Captain America will cross $200M this weekend or come very close to it at least. And next weekend, the franchise has a strong possibility of holding on to No. 1 for the fourth weekend in a row. If it does so, it will be the first picture since Hunger Games to do so in 2012 and before that The Dark Knight in 2008. There is nothing of circumstance opening next weekend to put the whoa's on it (competition is the female comedy The Other Woman, the late Paul Walker starrer Brick Mansions, and the horror film The Quiet Ones).
Sony/TriStar's Heaven is For Real is in the $18.9M to the $20.1M range for the three-day with the 5-day gross now estimated to be $27M+, depending on how much the picture drops on Easter Sunday. Traditionally, moviegoing peaks on Good Friday and then falls off a bit on Easter Sunday as people tend to spend time at home with their families; it is unlike the heavy moviegoing seasons of Christmas or Thanksgiving when the marketplace is flooded with moviegoers of all ages as school kids and college students have long breaks and people can't wait to get a break from family get togethers. However, faith-based pictures, have been enjoying stronger holds on Sunday. The picture, produced by Joe Roth and TD Jakes with filmmaker Randy Wallace at the helm, was well adapted from the bestselling book of the same name by Wallace and Chris Parker. It was also well executed with an overall A CinemaScore and those 35 and under gave it an A+. The picture is based on the true story of four-year-old Colton Burpo who almost died and then came back only to astonish his parents with people he visited in Heaven (like his great grandfather whom he could not have known yet described in detail). Having had a near death experience myself, there is no rational/medical explanation to elucidate what I witnessed in detail either.
Heaven is For Real opened strong this past Wednesday to $3.7 and continued Thursday with another $1.37M; so it started the weekend with a solid $7M. Just two weeks ago, looking at tracking, there was virtually no unaided awareness for it, so what happened is the faith-based moviegoers (who Hollywood is unable to track) came out yet again this year to support a God-themed movie. According to Sony, 'The audience demographic is 62% female and 38% male with 49% under 35 years of age, showing strength among faith-based as well as mainstream audiences.'
Sad news for Warner Bros., Johnny Depp and producer Alcon Entertainment this morning as Transcendence estimates have descended in its opening weekend to $11.5M to $11.8M; can't beat bad word-of-mouth on a C+ CinemaScore either so this picture will likely drop hard in its second weekend. Estimates for Marlon Wayan's A Haunted House 2 from Open Road Films have not really changed. The first Haunted House had a much stronger opening weekend last year with $18.1M and went onto gross $40M domestically. This one is opening to half of that, around $9M to $9.4M (Open Rd. is the only one predicting $10M and says it's budget was $4M - that doesn't include marketing costs). Scary. The last opener of this weekend is Disney's Bears,which is a live-action nature show that could have easily been distributed through the National Geographic channel (it has that kind of feel to it). Narrated by John C. Reilly, the little film is expected to pull in around $5M for the studio. That is a snapshot this morning and here is the updated chart:
1). Captain America: The Winter Soldier (DIS), 3,825 theaters (-113) / $9.8M to $10.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $24.5M to $25.4M (-38% to 40%) / Per screen average: $6,650 / Total cume: $200M / Wk 3
2). Rio 2 (FOX), 3,975 theaters (+27) / $9.2M to $9.5M Fri. /3-day cume: $23M+ (-41%) / Per screen: $5,700 / Total cume: 75.9M / Wk 2
3). Heaven Is For Real (SONY), 2,417 theaters / $7.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $18.9M to $20.1M / Per screen: $8,000 / Total cume: $26.8M to $27M+ (5-day) / Wk 1
4). Transcendence (WB), 3,455 theaters / $4.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $11.5M to $11.8M / Per screen: $3,300 / Wk 1
5). Haunted House 2 (OPRD), 2,310 / $3.9M to $4.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M to $9.4M / Per screen: $4,000/ Wk 1
6). Draft Day (LGF), 2,781 theaters (0) / $2.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6M (-37%) / Total cume: $19.5M to $19.7M / Wk 2
7). Divergent (LGF), 2,486 theaters (-624) / $2.15M to $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.5M to $6M (-18%) / Total cume: $$133.6M to $134.2M / Wk 5
8). Oculus(REL), 2,648 theaters (0) / $2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.3M (-53%) / Total cume: $21.3M / Wk 2
9). Bears (DIS), 1,720 theaters / $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5M / Per screen: $2,900 / Wk 1
10). God's Not Dead (FREE), 1,796 theaters (-64) / $1.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4M to $4.9M (-11% to 14%) / Total cume: $47.5M to $48.4M / Wk 5
PREVIOUSLY: FRIDAY, 11:18 PM:Heaven is For Real- yet another faith-based film, this time from Sony/TriStar and based on the best-selling Christian book of the same name - has risen beyond all expectations to gross an estimated $7.8M to $8M tonight for a 3-day of about $19.4M to $19.6M and a 5-day total of possibly $26.5M+. Its per screen average, hovering around $8,000, is the highest of any pic in the Top Ten. Thought it might do so with such strong mid-week opening numbers. Kudos to filmmaker Randy Wallace who directed and co-scripted (with Chris Parker) for having the best opener of the weekend, head and shoulders above the Johnny Depp-starring sci-fi film Transcendence which isin the No. 4 post with only $12M to $12.4M for the 3-day and a C+ CinemaScore. Transcendence is the debut film of Oscar-winning cinematographer Wally Pfister. Heaven is For Real, which stars Greg Kinnear, got an overall CinemaScore of A and A+ with those under 35. Pretty darn good and means positive word-of-mouth. Lo and behold, there are currently two faith-based films again in the Top Ten this weekend with God's Not Dead hanging on for the ten spot in its fifth week of release, adding another $4.7M. On a $2M budget (with another $2M to market), it's expected total cume is $48.3M.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier, commands the No. 1 spot in a three-peat for Disney/Marvel and the sequel should travel past $200M after the 3-day. Added to its $335M+ international take from last weekend and its already at $535M+ worldwide and will go much higher after this 3-day. There is only a slight difference right now between the Cap and Rio 2 but bets are on that the positions will stay in place throughout the Easter weekend. The Cap shooed the bird away last weekend, too, when Rio 2 opened in second place. Seems Fox can't get a beak - I mean, break - domestically with this animated family film as the sequel opened to almost identical numbers as the first film (at $39.3M). However, with its overseas take added in, it'll be flying past $200M+ after this weekend worldwide. As it stands tonight, the Captain is flipping the bird.
This Easter weekend has turned into a three-tier Top Ten. The first tier being Captain America ($25.8M to $26.1M), Rio 2 ($24.1M to 24.3M) and Heaven is For Real ($19.4M to $19.6M); the second tier is Transcendence ($12M to $12.4M) and the newcomer A Haunted House 2 ($9.1M to $9.5M) starring Marlon Wayans to round out the Top Five. The comedy/horror film that Wayans has been working hard to promote for Open Road Films received a B+ CinemaScore. The third tier - full of holdovers - is where Disney's opener Bears lumbered into with around $5.2M to $5.6M but has a solid A CinemaScore. In their second weekends, Draft Day is only expected to drop about 33% but the horror film Oculus is sinking faster, down about 53%. Here are positions and numbers based on Friday night numbers. As always, positions and estimates may change in the AM:
1). Captain America: The Winter Soldier (DIS), 3,825 theaters (-113) / $9.8M to $10.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $25.8M to $26.1M (-38%) / Per screen average: $6,800 / Total cume: $200M+ / Wk 3
2). Rio 2 (FOX), 3,975 theaters (+27) / $9.5M to $9.8M Fri. /3-day cume: $24.1M to $24.3M (-40%) / Per screen: $6,088 / Total cume: 77.5M / Wk 2
3). Heaven Is For Real (SONY), 2,417 theaters / $7.8M to $8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19.4M to $19.6M / Per screen: $8,000 / Total cume: $26.5M to $27M (5-day) / Wk 1
4). Transcendence (WB), 3,455 theaters / $5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $12M to $12.4M / Per screen: $3,545 / Wk 1
5). Haunted House 2 (OPRD), 2,310 / $3.8M to $4.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.1M to $9.5M / Per screen: $4,097/ Wk 1
6). Draft Day (LGF), 2,781 theaters (0) / $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.5M+ (-33%) / Total cume: $20.2M / Wk 2
7). Divergent (LGF), 2,486 theaters (-624) / $2.3M to $2.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.1M to $6.3M (-17%) / Total cume: $134.3M / Wk 5
8). Oculus(REL), 2,648 theaters (0) / $2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.5M (-53%) / Total cume: $21.6M / Wk 2
9). Bears (DIS), 1,720 theaters / $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.2M to $5.6M / Per screen: $3,139 / Wk 1
10). God's Not Dead (FREE), 1,796 theaters (-64) / $1.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.7M (-14%) / Total cume: $48.3M / Wk 5
Post By http://www.deadline.com/2014/04/box-office-heaven-is-for-real-surprises-captain-america-may-pass-200m-and-flips-the-bird-as-rio-2-perched-at-no-2-transcendence-soft/
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