The ebb and flow of news regarding Ervin Santana on Saturday was like watching a slow-motion poker hand at the end of a long night.
Santana was one of 13 potential free agents who received qualifying offers from their original teams after the season. This set up an easy decision: Sign for one year at US$14.1-million or pass and test the open market. All 13, ranging in talent from Robinson Cano to Stephen Drew, passed and became free agents.
For the likes of Cano, it was an easy decision. The five-time all-star, who finished in the top six in MVP voting in the last four years, would be very popular as a free agent. He ultimately chose to sign with the Seattle Mariners for 10 years and US$240-million in early December. Catcher Brian McCann signed in late November with the Yankees, who also scooped up Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and re-signed Hiroki Kuroda.
Curtis Granderson and Mike Napoli also were signed on Dec. 6, the hot day for the Qualifying 13.
On Saturday, social media was alive with news that Santana, a moderately talented pitcher who made US$13-million last season in the added option year of a four-year deal signed with the Angels in 2009, was prepared to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays for an amount around the value of the qualifying offer.
The players still at the table in the second week of March, like Santana, are free agents yet to find a deal and teams that haven't added all the talent they believe they need to contend for a playoff spot, like the Blue Jays. The winners have all gone home.
The players, such as the three who received qualifying offers who remain unsigned, may be upset they passed on that US14.1-million. They appear to have overvalued their hand. The teams still looking for talent have been waiting for the players to fold and sign for an amount that would certainly be below market value.
Complicating the decision was the qualifying-offer caveat. Teams who sign a player who had been made a qualifying offer lose their first-round pick as a cost of signing the free agent, unless that pick is in the top 10, in which case the team loses its next highest pick. (The pick is simply lost, it does not go to the free agent's previous team as compensation; the former team receives a pick at the end of the first round now.)
It's a strange new rule in its second year which is creating dismal decisions for everyone still playing now.
After the initial news about Santana and the Jays, the reports started littering 'if' statements: There was a 5 p.m. ET deadline set by Santana that seemed designed to elicit other offers. The Orioles, who signed Ubaldo Jimenez off the qualifying list in late February, then appeared to step in with an offer for Santana. Then Santana decided to abandon the 5 p.m. deadline, or it never existed to begin with.
Ervin Santana in talks with blue jays, orioles and 1 nl team. deal should come soon. http://t.co/M1ST1WqGgA
- Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) March 8, 2014
Source close to Ervin Santana talks says Blue Jays do not have an agreement in place with him at this moment. But they are working on it.
- Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 8, 2014
Si para las 5 pm ET no hay una mejor oferta, Ervin Santana será miembro de #BlueJays... @dSoldevila 1ro reportó que están cerca
- Enrique Rojas/ESPN (@Enrique_Rojas1) March 8, 2014
Sources: Ervin Santana's team could come down to performance-bonus money. Jays offering none. Orioles could match $14M deal, add incentives.
- Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 8, 2014
Now @jonmorosi is reporting that Santana is prepared to wait 'days' before making a decision. Everybody stand down. #Bluejays #Jays
- Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) March 8, 2014
It was sloppy, desperate poker played by the losers in this wretched game.
If the Blue Jays land with Ervin Santana-and they're working on it-they'll have played this very well, in the value/player equation.
- Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) March 8, 2014
For Jays to go in a year from feeling they HAD to give up d'Arnaud/Syndergaard for Dickey to nickel-and-diming Santana is wholly pathetic.
- Andrew Stoeten (@AndrewStoeten) March 8, 2014
Which doesn't mean someone can't turn this into a winning hand eventually. Santana needs to make a decision quickly and get into someone's camp and get ready for the season. The Jays or Orioles will get a decent pitcher who has topped 200 innings four times in his nine-year career. Santana's 5.0-WAR season (2008) is well in the rear-view mirror, but he's been at 2.9 or higher in three of the last four years. A perfect fourth starter on two teams who probably need another piece to be an American League contender.
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