Here is a classic example of 'rank doesn't matter'. Thanks to somewhat under-performing new releases and a harsh drop for last weekend's champion, the number one film of the weekend will probably be last weekend's alleged flop Mr. Peabody and Sherman. The DreamWorks Animation release earned $5.45 million yesterday, down just 34% from last Friday. Its weekend total could be around $21m for the second frame, meaning it will probably top the weekend box office despite being second last weekend. Does that automatically mean that everyone who wrote off Mr. Peabody and Sherman as a flop last weekend has to apologize and/or correct themselves? Maybe, but its arbitrary rank has little to do with its box office success.
The 20th Century Fox release should end the weekend with around $63 million after ten days, still below the norm for a DWA March release but it's already outpacing Turbo and Rise of the Guardians domestically. If it plays like The Croods (and it's second weekend drop may actually be slightly lower, albeit with a larger $26m second weekend and a much larger $44m debut), it will get to $136m domestic, which is actually squarely in the 'not bad' category for DreamWorks originals, with potential riches yet to come overseas. I'm not saying it's a hit yet, especially with The Muppets Most Wanted coming down the pike, but it's not dead yet.
The big new release was actually from DreamWorks' live-action department, as the Walt Disney Walt Disney -distributed Need For Speed earned $6.64 million on its opening day. The poorly reviewed $66 million video game adaptation will struggle to get to $18 million for the weekend, sadly declaring that Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul is not quite a movie star. No one was expecting this to pull in Fast/Furious numbers, but this was closer to Sylvester Stallone's Driven. There is little good news stateside, as the competition will be brutal in the next few weeks thanks to Divergent, Sabotage, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. I have no desire to further kick someone while they are down, so further analysis can wait until tomorrow. The video game adaptation sub-genre has a long and storied history of box office misses and/or critical disasters. Barring strong overseas numbers, Need For Speed is merely another member of said club.
Speaking of clubs, Tyler Perry's Single Moms Club earned just $3.2 million yesterday, making it the single worst opening day in Perry's directing career. The buzz just wasn't there, lacking both Madea and/or any media-friendly celebrities (no Janet Jackson or Kim Kardashian this time around). Considering that Lionsgate is basically getting out of the Tyler Perry business and we're approaching the tenth anniversary of Diary Of A Mad Black Woman next year, this utter failure of his fifteenth feature doesn't send the right signal, especially with no other projects on the release calendar as of this writing. Still, the film was cheap even a $9m opening and a $20m domestic finish will at worse just be deducting from the copious profits made from his other pictures over the last nine years.
The most interesting new release was of course the 291 screen release of Warner Bros.' Veronica Mars movie. As you know, the film was a feature continuation of the beloved but poorly rated television show. The film version, coming seven years after the end of its third and final season, was funded mostly by hardcore fans using Kickstarter. The film actually debuted in 291 theaters and Video On Demand on the same day, unheard of for a major studio release. Obviously this is a special circumstance, as Warner had to rent out many of those theaters as the big chains generally don't play movies that are available on VOD, but the picture still brought in a solid $1 million. I don't have VOD numbers and may not for awhile, but the film's theatrical release should open to around $3 million, or just over half its $5.7 million budget.
300: Rise of an Empire dropped 67% from last Friday, earning $5.8 million yesterday for a $65m domestic cume. I's not far off from the trajectory of the original 300, which dropped 64% of its first Friday and ended the weekend 53% down from its debut weekend. 300: Rise of an Empire should end its second frame with over/under $20m, or about -55% from last weekend's $45m debut. Its ten day total should be around $76m, so it's still kicking despite premature declarations of death. Non-Stop earned another $3.2m on its third Friday. The Liam Neeson actioner should earn Universal around $10m for the weekend, and its domestic cume is currently at $61.39m, and it should pass Unknown's $63m domestic total today. The LEGO Movie dropped 19% last night, earning another $2m and bringing its cume to $231m. Finally The Great Budapest Hotel expanded from four to 66 theaters and earned another estimated $1.09m.
That's a wrap for today! Join us tomorrow for the weekend estimates.
Post By http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/03/15/fri-box-office-need-for-speed-sputters-single-moms-club-tanks/
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